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Chain of Foods: Possible Y2K
Glitches and What They Mean to Youby Stephen Ausherman
Author’s Disclaimer:
What’s a reasonable interpretation for a future unprecedented event with "expert" predictions ranging from global thermonuclear war, to three days without cable TV? I tend to side with the Pollyannas and say it won’t be any big deal, but not with any real certainty. There, I said it. That’s my disclaimer. I won’t take any responsibility for anyone caught unprepared for Armageddon or whatever. How’s that for legalese? I'd let my lawyer take care of it, but a Gartner survey shows that law firms are among the least prepared.
"The Food Supply Working Group is committed to assuring that everyone involved in food supply production and distribution is aware of potential Y2K problems, understands the importance of acting now to check their systems, and knows where they can go for help. Our goal: to do whatever we can to prevent any disruption in the food supply chain come January 1, 2000." --U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Dan Glickman So your business is ready for Y2K. You know the drill. Your cash register is compliant, scanners upgraded, financial records backed-up. And, of course, your shelves are stocked. But are they stocked up enough or too much? Experts (I use that term loosely) can’t seem to agree on what the Y2K bug will bring. A nuclear holocaust seems just a likely as a bad coffee day. One thing is for sure: those in the food industry are facing an unfair share of the Y2K burden.
Is it Too Late to Prepare for Y2K?
Of course, that depends on the size of the problems the date change will bring, and that’s a point few seem to agree on. There is no historic precedent for this problem, yet more "experts" seem to crop up on a daily basis to offer their opinions. But as you slog through a myriad of books, brochures, and Web sites in search of an answer, you may notice a certain trend. The worst predictions come from those who stand to profit the most from a gloomy forecast: businesses that sell camping and survivalist gear, evangelists, lawyers, computer repair shops and those who produce Y2K preparation books and seminars.
Likewise, those who stand to suffer as a result of public chaos are painting a suspiciously rosy picture. Hence, the most optimistic reports are coming from government agencies, banks, stock markets and food distribution organizations. Some chirpy individuals even go as far as to say the whole thing is a hoax.
Unfortunately, it’s not a hoax. The Y2K glitch first reared its ugly head as early as 1995, when high-tech cash registers, manufactured by TEC America Inc., recognized credit cards with an expiration date of 00 and 01 as nearly a century too old. As a result, they promptly crashed, making further check and credit card transactions impossible.
But that doesn’t mean we should head for the hills with a crate of MREs and a copy of Emerson’s Self-Reliance. The most common consensus among the more reliable reports seems to acknowledge the Y2K threat as a kind of survivable storm. Sure there are some dark clouds on the horizon, and maybe they will bring hurricane-force winds. We don’t know where it will hit or how hard. Then again maybe it will all blow over.
So the best advice is to prepare for inconveniences that such a storm might bring. Expect a few days--a week, tops--without water, power and deliveries. Whatever plan you have for your regional hazard--be it blizzard, earthquake, flood or whatever--have it in place before New Year’s Eve and you should be fine. Natural disasters strike the United States more frequently than any other country, so we should be able to weather this one.
Agricultural Concerns
Agriculture producers and food suppliers, like so many businesses, are heavily dependent on computerized processing and information exchange. Everything from irrigation equipment to food processing assembly lines and refrigeration face potential problems in the dawn of the year 2000. Distributors, wholesalers, and retailers rely on computer-driven equipment to transport, deliver, store, display, and sell food products. Any interruption along this "farm-to-fork chain" can result in a direct loss to those who supply food. The consequences: food supplies become more expensive and less available. And the further along you are on this chain, the more likely you will be affected.
The potential for disruptions of supplies and sales begins in the earliest stages of production--on the farm. Reports from the USDA sound promising at first. A USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service survey shows that fewer than a third of farmers surveyed use automated (computer based) systems, most of which are simply used for record keeping. Less than three percent use embedded systems technology, such as sensors to gauge soil content. More than half of the farmers surveyed have addressed problems associated with the date change at an average cost of less than $1,000. And storage systems for grains and fresh vegetables are virtually free of Y2K concerns.
All this good news is hinged on one major factor: Uninterrupted water and electric services in rural areas. The bad news: due to their limited resources, utility service providers in rural areas are the most vulnerable to the Y2K problem because they are smaller and more isolated than service providers in urban and suburban areas.
Producers and Distributors
A study by the Gartner Group focused on the largest producers and distributors of foods most consumed during the winter months. The report concluded that these food producers and distributors were "making satisfactory preparations and should be well prepared to sustain operations despite any interruptions caused by the century date change." However, Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman stressed that the large distributors cannot operate without smaller companies, such as independent truck owners, freight forwarders and short line railroads. And these companies, he said, "are most behind in addressing the Year 2000 Problem."
Furthermore, smaller distributors and processors may be already losing out on bank loans and contracts if they are not able to verify Y2K compliance. Nobody wants to invest in a company that may not survive the New Year. Those companies who do promise compliance--then fail to provide uninterrupted supplies and services--will likely face lawsuits. Though thirty-eight states have passed or are now considering legislation to give government agencies and computer companies immunity from lawsuits for damages caused by the Y2K bug, no one seems to be willing to extend similar immunity to the other victims of that bug. Federal laws, which would supersede laws in many states, are yet to be determined.
The problem is compounded further if the product comes from overseas, particularly in developing regions such as Africa, Latin America and Asia. These are prime pepper areas, meaning that those in the fiery foods industry are only slightly better off than those who retail in coffee, which isn’t grown anywhere in the continental United States. So for anyone who prides themselves on their wide selection of sauces from exotic lands, now might be a good time to stock up.
Consumer Concerns
Last on the chain of food-to-fork is the consumers. Yet in all the Y2K confusion, they remain the least predictable. How will they behave as the big day draws near? Will they stay calm and leave you with a six-month supply of freeze-dried taco kits? Or will they hoard every bottle of hot sauce they can get their hands on, then riot when your shelves are bare? A Gallup survey, conducted in December, 1998, found 37 percent of consumers interviewed do expect that "food and retail distribution systems will likely fail, possibly causing grocery and other store shortages," yet only 26 percent plan to "stockpile food and water."
As the last link on the chain, consumers may feel they have reason to be edgy. Food organizations, such as Grocery Manufacturers of America, Food Marketing Institute and Food Distributors International recognize their concerns, and are quick to point out the optimistic results of their research. Each reports that 89 to 95 percent of their respective members are confident that they will achieve compliance in time. Extending that confidence to the consumers is the trickier issue.
But then, it always has been.
Don’t Panic--Prepare
You can make sure you don’t add to the problem with a noncompliant business. If you haven’t already taken measures to safeguard your business against the Y2K glitch, here are a few steps you should take now:
Keep a hard copy of all your 1999 records. A well-organized file of bank statements, inventories, insurance policies, investments and other financial records policies will help you identify any inconsistencies on statements that arrive in the first part of the year 2000.
If your business relies on nothing more than a home computer, you should be able to download a patch from your software manufacturer’s Web site. These are FREE, so don’t waste your money on some software pirate selling a patch from his site. Y2K scams are rampant, so be careful. If you are not computer-literate enough to follow the instructions on a download, any computer shop should be able to conduct a Y2K test for FREE. They can then make suggestions based on the kind of computer you own and the jobs it does.
Most recommendations fall into three categories:
1) Do nothing. Your computer is already compliant. Or maybe your computer doesn’t recognize the year 2000, but will still be able to run programs without any noticeable differences. Either way, this option costs nothing.
2) Some computers may require only minor adjustments that won’t amount to more than $50 for an hour of labor.
3) Worst case scenarios involve replacing hardware ($100-$200); or replacing the entire system ($700-1000). But don’t forget that transferring your old data to a new system can add much to these expenses.
Some helpful Web sites:
For more complex computer systems, you can get free advice from several sources. The President’s Council on Year 2000 Conversion offers information on Y2K compliance and contingency planning.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology’s (NIST) Year 2000 is outstanding. They provide information necessary to help you prepare your computer hardware and software for the year 2000 rollover. An agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, NIST claims "to promote awareness of the issues and provide information to users on standards and testing with an emphasis on technology appropriate to small and medium sized enterprises and manufacturers."
The biggest benefit on this site is their Y2K Help Center, where they provide a Y2K Jumpstart Kit and a Y2K Self Help-Tool for small businesses and firms. They also offer free help in the areas of technical assistance on the proper installation and use of the Y2K Self-Help Tool. Additionally, they include links to Y2K product compliance information.
The Y2K Help Center for Small Business can be reached by calling 1-800-Y2K-7557 or by e-mail at: y2khelp@nist.gov.
They’re also linked into the Small Business Administration site, which is also well worth.
National Grocers Association has a "Retail Readiness Kit" that sells for $90.
Last and perhaps least, the Federal Trade Commission has information on business and consumer education that may help you prepare for the Year 2000.
Stephen Ausherman is a freelance writer/photographer who has worked in several countries, including Vietnam, Iraq, Nigeria, China and India. A Chapel Hill native and UNC graduate, he now lives in Albuquerque and spends too much time in his garden.
A Date With Disaster?To throw a little more confusion into the mix, here’s a list of problem dates to look toward with dread. The good news is we’ve passed some of them with no problems reported.
April 1, 1999 - The first day of the fiscal year 2000 for Canada, Japan and New York State. As of this writing (the end of April), they are not experiencing any abnormal levels of chaos.
July 1, 1999 - The first day of the fiscal year for 44 states.
August 21, 1999 - Global Positioning System satellites will reset their Week Number field to zero. GPS provides navigational data for the Department of Defense, local police and fire departments, and about ten million commercial ships and planes. How the rollover will affect these users depends on the manufacturer of their GPS receiver.
September 9, 1999 - In some systems, this date will come up as 9999, computer code for "stop here" or "I don’t know." What happens then is anybody's guess.
October 1, 1999 - The first day of the fiscal year for the federal government. If the states survived theirs, no reason the feds should have a problem.
January 3, 2000 - The first business day of the year 2000. Computers that get weekends off might wake up to a really bad Monday.
February 29, 2000 - Years that can be divided by four are leap years. We all knew that. Not all years that end in 00 are leap years, but the ones that can be divided by 400 are. Most of us knew that--and let’s hope the computer programmers did. We haven’t had a leap year like this since 1600. And if you know your history, you’ll recall that not a single computer was able to access the Internet that day.